From Tourism Assumptions to Evidence-Based Strategy.

The tourism business has always operated with an element of guesswork. We make decisions based on our years of experience, seasonal expectations and existing profiles of our ideal customer. It can be extremely useful to layer in a different way of looking at what that actual behaviour looks like across many years.

Elle Tick's master thesis research provides a great illustration of how this type of work provides a unique perspective and informs business strategy by way of the Nordic motorhome rental market.

From 2017 to now, research is able to indicate several measurable changes in the market -International customers composed about 80% of all renters in 2017, compared to 84% in 2019 -Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands and France are key international markets - in 2019 families comprised around 65% of total renters included in the research, while couples accounted for about 35% of overall renters -The average observed age of drivers was 45-46, while the average length of hire was 12 days -This paints a strong pre-pandemic picture In 2020, the market shifted drastically. -Total renters included dropped from 2,290 to just 1,257 in 2020. -Simultaneously, the number of locals increased from approximately 16% in 2019 to 53% in 2020. -Here, the data captured two simultaneous shifts: not only was business shrinking, but the customer base changed dramatically. The following year's local activity remained strong, with local customers making up roughly 47% of the rental market. -However, in 2022, a strong surge in international tourism returned to bring business up to 86% international customers, similar to the pre-pandemic proportion. -The data also shows enduring trends beyond 2022 -the duration of hire continued to increase, averaging nearly 13 days in 2021, and close to 14 days over 2022 to 2025. -the dominance of the family traveller softened while the proportion of couple customers grew from just over one third (35%) in 2019 to almost half (46%) by 2025. -This shift indicates different customer utilisation of motorhome hire for extended, longer breaks perhaps. Implications For tourism companies looking at this information, this highlights why an evidence-based strategy can be key. A company only operating from previous experience and assuming previous dominant demographics would continue to target mainly families and the international market without acknowledging the growth of couples as a significant segment.

A historical lens helps a company see the nuanced shift to the growth of couples and how international demand, though consistent overall, can be substituted as and when required (during a pandemic!).

This new information informs strategic decisions. Marketing has the potential to actively monitor shifts in its customer base, operations has the possibility of considering the increase in average holiday duration, fleet owners could rethink the suitability and capacity for different customer profiles. At a broader business level, organisations can assess international vs.

National market focus. The power of these insights are when they connect to form one whole picture. Elle's research is an excellent illustration of how a database provides far more than just number to understand market dynamics across different periods.

The lesson applies to the tourism sector more broadly.

Consumer behaviour, at the best of times is constantly moving and evolving, to navigate the changing trends businesses require data that indicates the direction and velocity of those changes. Data turns raw statistics into evidence that helps organisations truly understand customer behaviour change not just as an event but a dynamic, long-term process that is happening before our eyes. The Nordic Motorhome Rental market is the case in point. As the tourism industry increasingly develops data-centric business models, a research-led strategy will be increasingly important for companies wanting to adapt to ever-changing customer trends.

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