Structural shift: why banks are retreating and private capital is arriving
Private credit in trade finance did not emerge suddenly — it became a logical response to the regulatory tightening of the banking sector. Following the 2008 global financial crisis, capital requirements for banks were consistently tightened, making low-margin lending to small and medium-sized businesses economically unfeasible. Consequently, a so-called "trade finance gap" emerged — a situation where solvent companies cannot access working capital.
According to data published by the International Monetary Fund in April 2026, assets under management by private credit funds in emerging markets reached a range of $50 to $100 billion — roughly five times more than a decade earlier. Although this represents less than 5% of the global private credit market, the growth rate is impressive: transaction volumes jumped from $14 billion in 2024 to more than $22 billion in 2025.
Experts at Allianz Global Investors forecast that the global private credit market will more than double by 2030, reaching $4.5 trillion in assets under management, with trade finance viewed as one of the key drivers of this growth. Deborah Newman of S&P Global Ratings emphasizes: "Private credit is increasingly financing asset types more typical of securitization — from corporate debt to asset-backed instruments, as well as digital infrastructure and transport assets."
Why trade finance is attractive to private capital
Unlike direct corporate lending, trade finance possesses structural characteristics that make it particularly attractive to institutional investors. Market professionals, such as those at Edenex, highlight several key advantages: self-amortizing instruments tied to identifiable trade transactions; short tenors — typically 30 to 180 days — which provide low duration and the ability to reinvest; floating rates linked to the real economy rather than market sentiment.
The Indian trade finance market demonstrates this potential, with transaction volumes on TReDS platforms reaching 3.6 trillion rupees annually. At the same time, default rates are below one percent of the financed volume, which exceeds 7 trillion rupees. Trade finance backed by a trade contract guarantee is one of the safest assets for capital deployment; this is precisely how private money flows into the ecosystem — according to Edenex experts.
Lessons from 2025: adaptation and resilience
The past year of 2025 proved telling for the private credit market. Macroeconomic volatility, tariff shocks and geopolitical uncertainty failed to significantly destabilize the situation. Direct lending to companies with EBITDA between $10 and $50 million remained largely unchanged, offering a premium of 100–150 basis points over syndicated markets with stronger covenants, including debt service coverage and restrictions on additional borrowings.
However, competition is intensifying. According to Chicago Atlantic, the share of private credit facilities priced below SOFR+500 increased in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting pressure from the aggressive syndicated market. At the same time, new business volume for the 12 largest public BDCs fell by 11.6% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024.
But specialists see a troubling indicator: the share of interest income paid in kind (PIK) reached approximately 8.8% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to 4.2% before the pandemic. "Sustainable growth has historically coincided with periods when borrowers sought to preserve cash," analysts note.
Trade finance: a key channel for 2026
Success increasingly depends on disciplined underwriting and identifying sustainable market segments.
Experts at S&P Global Ratings forecast that "in 2026, middle-market sponsor lending will continue to grow and could potentially reach $2 trillion, especially if the macroeconomic environment remains supportive." At the same time, the private investment market — encompassing consumer lending, supply chain finance and corporate loans — will increasingly attract insurers, pension funds and asset managers.
However, the need for rapid capital deployment and a higher risk tolerance mean that verification mechanisms will become even more critical.
The IMF, for its part, warns: "Limited transparency and insufficiently developed supervisory systems could hinder timely risk assessment," particularly in jurisdictions where financial systems are still taking shape.
New structures and growing complexity
2026 promises to be a period of further innovations. New hybrid financing structures combining elements of funds and securitizations will emerge. Feeder funds, collateralized fund obligations (CFOs), net asset value (NAV) financing and secondary instruments are increasingly borrowing concepts characteristic of securitizations. As are platforms such as Edenex, providing exporters with rapid access to working capital while attracting investors under a trade contract guarantee.
The scale of transactions is also growing. A notable example is the deal between Meta Platforms and Blue Owl Capital to finance the construction of a 2.064-gigawatt data center in Louisiana for $27.3 billion. S&P Global Ratings assigned a preliminary "A+" rating to the senior secured debt — the first data center transaction evaluated under project finance methodology.
However, innovations also carry risks. The market is relationship-based and consists of a small, interconnected group of participants. This makes the sector vulnerable to chain reactions in the event of stress.
Regional characteristics
The development of private credit in trade finance is uneven. Europe outpaced the US in the first half of 2025 both in terms of private debt fund capital raising and middle-market M&A activity, but by the end of the year the US market had caught up, driven by investments in AI infrastructure and related products.
Asia is seeing a pickup. Transaction growth is particularly noticeable in China, India and Japan.
In emerging markets, private credit is increasingly moving beyond corporate lending and participating in infrastructure financing, public-private partnerships and impact investing, often in collaboration with development institutions. This helps mobilize long-term capital for energy, transport and digital infrastructure.
Balancing opportunities and risks
Market professionals agree that trade finance is an undervalued niche. While a significant portion of the market — direct lending, leveraged loans, real estate loans — has become highly competitive and strongly correlated with public markets, short-term trade finance and supply chain finance remain structurally attractive.