With Washington reopened after Democrats caved, was the party’s fight all for naught? History shows caving can spark a comeback — or trigger lasting damage.

“The Shutdown Was Always Going to End With Democrats Caving and Looking Ridiculous,” a commentary headline in The Federalist said Tuesday.

“What if Democrats’ Big Shutdown Loss Turns Out to Be a Win?” a New York Times headline asked the same day.

The 43-day standoff began when Republicans refused to extend enhanced healthcare tax credits — commonly known as subsidies — for Affordable Care Act recipients. Without them, premiums are set to rise sharply for more than 15 million Americans. Democrats refused to pass a funding bill without the extension, triggering the shutdown. Now both chambers voted to reopen the government — without the tax credits. President Donald Trump signed the measure Wednesday night.

Senate Republicans agreed to hold a vote on extending the tax credits by mid-December. House Republicans did not make the same promise. Asked if he would guarantee a vote, Speaker Mike Johnson said Wednesday night Republicans “would demand a lot of reforms before anything like that was ever possible.” Most observers say it’s not clear an extension could pass either chamber.

We have seen caves like this before. President Bill Clinton in 1995-96. Democrats in 2002. Republicans in 2008. Each cave carried consequences — sometimes a win, sometimes a loss, sometimes a backlash.

Clinton vs. Gingrich, 1995-96: Cave, Then Win

In November 1995, tensions between Clinton and House Speaker Newt Gingrich had already soured. Gingrich complained Clinton snubbed him during a shared flight to the funeral of assassinated Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Gingrich acknowledged his reaction was “petty . . . but I think it’s human.”

Days later, Clinton vetoed a Republican spending bill seeking cuts to Medicare and other programs. The government shut down from Nov. 14 to Nov. 19, 1995. A second shutdown followed from Dec. 16, 1995, to Jan. 6, 1996.

Republicans held majorities in both chambers — as they do now.

At first, Clinton looked weakened. But public opinion turned against Republicans, who were widely seen as overreaching. That sour mood stuck. By the 1996 election, Clinton’s cave looked less like surrender and more like savvy positioning. He won reelection handily.

Iraq War Authorization, 2002: Cave, Then Lose

In October 2002, Democrats faced a brutal choice. Many caved, voting to authorize force against Iraq despite private doubts, hoping to avoid looking weak on national security shortly before the 2002 midterms.

The Second Gulf War began in March 2003. As it dragged on and public opinion turned against it, that vote haunted the party for years. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who voted for the resolution, spent his 2004 presidential campaign explaining why. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York carried the same burden in 2008.

Why the difference between 1995 and 2002? Bill Clinton’s cave was tactical and brief. The Iraq cave was strategic and permanent.

At the time, no one could know which outcome would follow. That is the point: Caves are judged not in the moment but in the aftermath.

TARP Bailout, 2008: Cave, Then Backlash

When the 2007–2008 financial crisis threatened economic collapse, the Bush administration proposed a $700 billion bank bailout. Many Democrats reluctantly joined Republicans to pass the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which had the Treasury purchase toxic assets from failing banks.

The move stabilized markets. But the political cost was steep. Many voters saw it as elites rescuing Wall Street while Main Street suffered. That anger fueled the Tea Party wave in 2010, reshaping Republican politics for years.

The cave may have prevented economic collapse, but it lit the fuse for a populist backlash that still reverberates.

Verdict delayed

Bill Clinton’s cave set up a win. Iraq’s cave set up a loss. TARP’s cave set up a backlash.

The shutdown is over. But the tax-credit fight isn’t. Democrats bet they could win the policy later by supporting the reopening now. History shows that sometimes works — and sometimes you just look weak twice.