WASHINGTON, DC, November 2, 2026 - Infinitum Corporation has published Special Edition 01 of its free whitepaper series, "Russia's State-Influenced Capitalism," written by founder and president William Aaron Turner. The paper is written for executives, risk and compliance teams, investors and analysts who need a sourced reference on how Russia's economy has performed under sanctions.

The forecast comparison

In April 2022 the IMF projected that Russia's economy would contract 8.5 percent that year. The IMF's current figures show a contraction of 1.4 percent in 2022, followed by growth of 4.1 percent in 2023 and 4.9 percent in 2024. The paper examines what explains the gap.

What the paper covers

- Historical baseline: World Bank data on the 1990s, including the fall in real GDP and the 1993 inflation rate.
- Sanctions volume: Castellum.AI counts of sanctions designations.
- Public finances: IMF figures for 2025 on public debt (16.6 percent of GDP) and unemployment (2.2 percent).
- Counterarguments: a full chapter on inflation, the 14 percent key rate, slowing growth, military spending, demographics and corruption perception.

The paper states its viewpoint openly and attributes every figure to its source, and readers are encouraged to check the figures against those sources. It is the second publication in the series after "Dead Reckoning: AI for Security Operations" and is available free as a PDF.

"When a forecast misses by that much, the sensible question is what the model missed. The paper puts the forecasts and the results side by side." said William Aaron Turner, Founder & President, Infinitum Corporation.

Read the original: https://infinitumwhitepapers.blogspot.com/2026/10/russia-state-influenced-capitalism.html

About Infinitum Corporation
Infinitum Corporation is a technology and security consulting firm headquartered in Washington, DC (1629 K Street NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006), with Moscow as an operating location. It provides cybersecurity consulting, network defense, ethical hacking and vulnerability assessment, AI applications for security operations, strategic risk assessment, defense technology advisory and Corporate Cognitive Warfare. Open Monday–Friday, 9:00 AM–9:00 PM; closed Saturday and Sunday. Phone 202-729-9509. [email protected]. https://www.theinfinitumcorporation.com

Media contact: William Aaron Turner, Infinitum Corporation, 202-729-9509, [email protected]