How Long-Term Travel Data Speaks About The Market?

A single year may describe a market but multiple years can explain it. Data underpinning the Elle Tick PhD dissertation studies Nordic motorhome rental markets over an extended timeframe - the “long-run” - as well as offering context to what had previously become apparent through more narrow or recent data. A few patterns arise immediately.

First is the weight of international travel.

More than 80 percent of rentals in 2017 were from international tourists, and around 84 percent in 2019. Key international source markets for rentals include Switzerland, Germany, Netherlands and France. Second is the importance of customer characteristics. Average rental customer age remained a fairly stable 45-46 years.

Families comprised the dominant market, with roughly 65 percent of featured rentals in 2019 from family customers.

Couples represented a significant share as well – roughly 35 percent. Third comes the pandemic. Featured rentals decreased from an estimated 2,290 in 2019 to 1,257 in 2020.

However, the market structure had a sharp shift with local customers going from 16 percent to some 53 percent. This showed how fast tourism travel demand could fluctuate from international to domestic options. Local customers were at 47 percent in 2021.

By 2022 international demand came back strong at some 86 percent.

Fourth – rental duration. Rental duration in the market had been some 12 days prior to the pandemic, and increased to around 12.7 days in 2021 and 14.3 days in 2022. Average duration stayed in the region of 14 days through to 2025. Five – changing customer mix.

Share of couples as a market for rental customers rise to almost 46 percent by 2025 from 35 percent in 2019.

What it All Means in Terms of What's Next Overall, this data paints a picture of market dynamics in motion. For businesses – understanding the linkages: the significance of international versus domestic indicates the opportunity of cross border and flexibility respectively; increasing rental durations, combined with increasing focus on the couples’ segment signifies shifts in customer travel behaviour and diversification respectively. This long-term perspective can shift business focus away from performance in a given month, year, or season - and towards underlying market currents in fleet planning, marketing and service.

It highlights the value of longitudinal analysis, wherein temporary shifts take on an entirely different meaning when set against the backdrop of several years of data. Elle Tick’s work offers a research backed lens, connecting the day-to-day motorhome rental transaction to longer trends in Nordic Tourism. The key take-away message is that growth must be informed by how customers are actually evolving, not just what sales look like this month or this year.

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