Home sales in the Austin Texas real estate market fell much faster than the national pace in September, giving local buyers more room to negotiate, according to Sarah Maddali, REALTOR® and team leader of Serendipity Realty Group at Compass. Closed sales across the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro dropped 14.8% year over year to 2,223, according to the September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report released Oct. 13 by Unlock MLS, while existing-home sales nationwide slipped 2.2%, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

Prices tell a calmer story. The metro's median sales price rose 1.4% to $421,000, almost exactly in line with the national median of $417,500, up 1.3%, per NAR. Inside Austin city limits, the median rose 4.2% to $570,958 while closed sales fell 12.7% to 777 homes, Unlock MLS reported.

Supply is where the Austin Texas real estate market stands apart. The metro had 5.4 months of inventory in September, compared with 4.8 months nationally, according to NAR. Austin-area sellers added 3,546 new listings, up 2.8% from a year earlier, and 13,465 homes were active on the market. Pending sales, homes under contract but not yet closed, dipped just 1.8% to 2,313. Nationally, NAR noted that higher inventory and longer days on market are giving buyers more negotiating power.
Rates remain the main pressure point. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey on Oct. 15 put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40%, unchanged from the prior week and up from 6.27% a year earlier.

"A 14.8% drop in sales sounds scary in a headline, but it's mostly about rates, not homes losing value," said Maddali. "Prices across the Austin metro are basically flat to slightly up, and with 5.4 months of inventory, buyers finally have time to compare homes and ask for repairs or help with closing costs. If you've been waiting for things to cool off, they have, so this is a good time to get serious and be picky."

What Austin buyers and sellers can do this month:
Buyers: Before you write an offer, ask how long the home has been listed and what's closed nearby in the last 60 days. Homes that have sat are often where sellers say yes to repairs or closing-cost help.
Buyers: Get a full pre-approval and compare Loan Estimates from at least two lenders so you know your real monthly budget before you tour.
Sellers: Price against what closed in September, not what sold last spring. With 5.4 months of supply, the homes that are prepped and priced right are the ones getting offers.

Sarah's free buyer and seller guides are at https://sarahmaddali.com/links/.

About Serendipity Realty Group
Serendipity Realty Group is an Austin, Texas real estate team led by Sarah Maddali, REALTOR® and Military Relocation Professional (MRP). Before real estate, Sarah worked in physical therapy, and she moved into real estate after her own first home purchase left her feeling like nobody was in her corner. Since 2016, Sarah and her team have closed 180+ transactions and helped flip 22+ homes around Austin, and she has been recognized by Austin Real Producers. The team helps first-time home buyers, relocating families and sellers across Austin, South Austin and the surrounding Hill Country. Serendipity Realty Group is a real estate team affiliated with Compass. Equal Housing Opportunity.